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DTN Midday Grain Comments     03/20 11:17

   Beans, Wheat Higher at Midday

   Trade is lightly higher across the board at midday. 

By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

 General Comments

   The U.S. stock market indices are higher at midday with the Dow futures up 
150 points. The interest rate products are firmer. The dollar index is 40 
points higher. Energies are higher with crude up 1.50. Livestock trade is 
mixed. Precious metals are lower with gold down $5.30. 


   Corn trade is narrowly mixed at midday with trade trying to find some 
footing after the break to start the week. Some aggressive long profit taking 
to start the week, trade will be watching to see if selling continues during 
the afternoon session today, with trade unable to sustain moves in either 
direction so far. Ethanol margins remain positive with spring driving season 
approaching, bolstering blender demand in the near to medium term, with 
gasoline demand very strong for spring so far. Double-crop areas in Brazil look 
to build some moisture in the coming days; with early harvest expanding in 
Argentina. The daily wire was active to start the week with the brisk export 
pace continuing, and Peru buying 110,000 metric tons today. On the May chart, 
we slipped below the 200-day moving average at $3.79, with the 50-day at $3.72 
3/4 the next level of support.


   Soybean trade is 3 to 6 cents higher with trade bouncing slightly this 
morning after the liquidation to start the week. Meal is $1 to $2 higher, and 
oil is 15 to 25 lower. The weather pattern looks to return to some near term 
dryness for much of South America with rains for much of the eastern belt 
incoming for the United States, with southern planting off to a slow start. 
Crush margins continue to narrow with meal dipping lower, but they remain 
solidly positive. The export wire has been quiet with business shifting 
seasonally to Brazil. On the May contract, support is the 50-day at 10.18 with 
resistance at the 20-day at 10.50.


   Wheat trade is flat to 5 cents higher at midday with lower condition ratings 
encouraging some light buying after the heavy selling of the last few days. The 
coming week looks drier again, but growth should be boosted in the short term 
for many areas with good coverage across south central Kansas and parts of 
Oklahoma. The extended forecast is better for the eastern areas with the west 
remaining on the dry side with significant forecast disagreement in the 
extended forecast. The dollar index remains just below 90 on the index, with 
sideways trade continuing. Black Sea-origin prices have been more sideways, but 
the U.S. remains disadvantaged on the world market. On the May Kansas City 
wheat support is the 100-day at $4.65 after we fell through the 50-day at $4.85 

   David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne 
and a registered adviser. 
He can be reached at 
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala


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