DTN Midday Grain Comments 03/20 11:17
Beans, Wheat Higher at Midday
Trade is lightly higher across the board at midday.
By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
The U.S. stock market indices are higher at midday with the Dow futures up
150 points. The interest rate products are firmer. The dollar index is 40
points higher. Energies are higher with crude up 1.50. Livestock trade is
mixed. Precious metals are lower with gold down $5.30.
Corn trade is narrowly mixed at midday with trade trying to find some
footing after the break to start the week. Some aggressive long profit taking
to start the week, trade will be watching to see if selling continues during
the afternoon session today, with trade unable to sustain moves in either
direction so far. Ethanol margins remain positive with spring driving season
approaching, bolstering blender demand in the near to medium term, with
gasoline demand very strong for spring so far. Double-crop areas in Brazil look
to build some moisture in the coming days; with early harvest expanding in
Argentina. The daily wire was active to start the week with the brisk export
pace continuing, and Peru buying 110,000 metric tons today. On the May chart,
we slipped below the 200-day moving average at $3.79, with the 50-day at $3.72
3/4 the next level of support.
Soybean trade is 3 to 6 cents higher with trade bouncing slightly this
morning after the liquidation to start the week. Meal is $1 to $2 higher, and
oil is 15 to 25 lower. The weather pattern looks to return to some near term
dryness for much of South America with rains for much of the eastern belt
incoming for the United States, with southern planting off to a slow start.
Crush margins continue to narrow with meal dipping lower, but they remain
solidly positive. The export wire has been quiet with business shifting
seasonally to Brazil. On the May contract, support is the 50-day at 10.18 with
resistance at the 20-day at 10.50.
Wheat trade is flat to 5 cents higher at midday with lower condition ratings
encouraging some light buying after the heavy selling of the last few days. The
coming week looks drier again, but growth should be boosted in the short term
for many areas with good coverage across south central Kansas and parts of
Oklahoma. The extended forecast is better for the eastern areas with the west
remaining on the dry side with significant forecast disagreement in the
extended forecast. The dollar index remains just below 90 on the index, with
sideways trade continuing. Black Sea-origin prices have been more sideways, but
the U.S. remains disadvantaged on the world market. On the May Kansas City
wheat support is the 100-day at $4.65 after we fell through the 50-day at $4.85
David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne
and a registered adviser.
He can be reached at firstname.lastname@example.org
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala
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